The USD/CNY forecast today centers on the PBOC’s critical reference rate setting at 6.9710, a level that will dictate Asian FX market direction for the session. As of 0115 GMT, the yuan fix represents a 0.15% weakening from yesterday’s close of 6.9605, testing the upper bound of its 2% trading band. This comes after three consecutive sessions of dollar strength against the renminbi, with the pair gaining 1.2% since January 29th’s low of 6.8900.
USD/CNY Forecast Today – Market Overview
The PBOC’s midpoint fix at 6.9710 marks the highest reference rate since December 2025, signaling potential tolerance for yuan depreciation amid global dollar strength. Year-to-date, USD/CNY has traded in a 6.82-7.01 range, with today’s fix approaching the upper quartile of that band. Spot prices currently hover at 6.9885, just 0.25% below the daily upper limit of 7.0084.
Volume analysis shows $12.8 billion in onshore yuan transactions during the morning session, 18% above the 30-day average, indicating heightened speculative interest. Offshore CNH trades at a 0.3% discount to onshore CNY at 7.0105, reflecting bearish sentiment. The dollar index (DXY) remains elevated at 104.25, up 0.6% this week, pressuring EM currencies.
For more insights, see our coverage on Oracle Stock Forecast February 2026: $50B Critical Bullish Catalyst.
Fundamental Analysis and Key Drivers
The PBOC’s policy stance reflects balancing acts between Bloomberg reports slowing Chinese GDP growth (Q4 2025: 4.2% y/y) and Fed rate expectations. With US core PCE at 2.8% in December 2025, markets price just 25bps of Fed cuts by June 2026, maintaining dollar support. China’s manufacturing PMI due February 5th (forecast: 49.8) could trigger further yuan volatility.
State bank dollar selling has capped USD/CNY below 7.01 this month, but Reuters analysis suggests $25 billion in corporate FX demand may overwhelm interventions. The PBOC’s 10bp RRR cut last week injected ¥500 billion liquidity, indirectly pressuring the yuan. Capital outflows reached $8.2 billion in January, the highest since Q3 2025. As Reuters reports.
USD/CNY Technical Analysis Today
The daily chart shows three critical resistance levels: 7.0084 (upper band limit), 7.0250 (January 18 high), and 7.1000 (psychological barrier). Support lies at 6.9600 (20-day MA), 6.9200 (January low), and 6.8900 (2025 trendline).
For more insights, see our coverage on AUD/USD Forecast February 2026: Critical Bullish Rally Ahead.
RSI at 62 shows room for further upside before overbought conditions. MACD lines crossed bullish on January 30th, with histogram bars expanding. The pair trades above its 50-day (6.9450) and 200-day (6.9100) MAs, confirming the uptrend. A descending channel breakout at 6.9800 suggests 7.0250 as next target.
Trading Outlook and Price Prediction
Bullish Scenario: Break above 7.0084 could accelerate toward 7.0250 if PBOC allows band expansion. Bearish Case: Rejection at 7.00 may see pullback to 6.9600 support. Key risk is unexpected PBOC intervention ahead of Lunar New Year liquidity needs.
